Polymarket Top Markets Today

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Daily recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/18 22:31:50

Iran deal RESOLVED YES, Warsh flips rate-hike odds above 50%

The Iran permanent peace deal resolved YES across all 17 Polymarket deadlines ($478.9M total volume, 4 UMA rounds), closing the biggest geopolitical bet of 2026 after Trump and Pezeshkian signed remotely from the G7. Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC press conference delivered a dot plot median of 3.8% (from 3.4%), pushing the hike-in-2026 binary above 50% for the first time (+22pp) and zero-cuts to 79.65%. BTC absorbed both: −2.2% to $63,796, $406M liquidated across 98,000 traders, ETF Day 22 reversed to −$82.2M, Fear & Greed at 15 — an 18th consecutive Extreme Fear day record. Hormuz end-June normality sits at 12.5%; ~600–1,500 ships remain stranded pending mine clearance and a fee-regime dispute.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/17 22:34:18

Khamenei confirmed dead; Warsh's first FOMC

Khamenei's death upgrades from unconfirmed wildcard to confirmed fact — Iran funeral July 4–9, Polymarket Iran complex at 99.85% Yes ($414.9M disputed vol, 4-round UMA unresolved). FOMC holds at 99.75%; Warsh's 2:30 PM debut dot-plot shift will reset zero-cuts and BTC. BTC ETF Day 21 flips positive (+$10.2M) but BTC drops to $65,240 (−1.17%); 17th consecutive Extreme Fear day (F&G 22) — a new streak record. BlackRock BITA covered-call ETF launched June 16 on Nasdaq.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/16 22:28:35

BOJ delivers; Hormuz June odds crater to 16.5%

BOJ hiked to 1.0% (31-year high, 7-1 vote) — the Polymarket BOJ June market resolved YES at 100%. Despite Trump's "ships, start your engines" announcement, the Hormuz end-of-June market collapsed 11.5pp to 16.5% as mine-clearing physics override the diplomatic signal; July 31 Hormuz rose to 60.5%. Iran peace deal markets remain UMA-disputed (4 rounds) at 99.15%–99.75% — formal Bürgenstock signing confirmed for June 19. BTC ETF Day 20 flipped to -$64.8M (GBTC -$124M); Fear & Greed at 23, 16th Extreme Fear day (first uptick). Fed zero-cuts -2.7pp to 68.75%; FOMC Day 1 underway.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/15 22:34:55

Iran MoU sends peace deal odds from 10% to 94%

Iran MoU announced June 14 — peace deal Jun 15 surged from 10.5% to 93.6% (+83.1pp, $22.96M vol). Ceasefire Jun 30 already resolved YES. Brent -4.8%, Fed zero-cuts -7pp.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/14 22:30:00

Iran deal odds crater to 10.5% as hardliners revolt — Friday's entire rebound erased

Five simultaneous blockers — Fars news agency, Nabavian's TV revolt, Israel's Beirut strike, Mojtaba Khamenei's 3-month absence, and the May 24 precedent — wiped out Friday's +20pp Iran rebound in under 24 hours. June 15 deadline sits at 10.5% tonight; Fed zero-cuts 2026 drifts hawkish to 78.5%.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/13 22:31:01

Pakistan PM triggers Iran's biggest overnight rebound — and ETF Day 19 logs its first net inflow

Pakistan PM Sharif's "final agreed text" announcement + Trump repost sent Iran's Polymarket term structure surging overnight: ceasefire Jun 30 +20pp to 79%, peace deal Jun 30 +15.5pp to 48.5%. BTC ETF Day 19 logs +$85.9M — first net inflow since late May.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/12 22:25:50

Iran deal odds crater as Trump and Tehran trade public accusations

Iran FM Baghaei's "no final conclusion" statement and Trump's furious Truth Social response sent ceasefire Jun 30 down −15.50pp to 61.5%, peace deal Jun 15 to 9.85%. BTC at $63,366; 12th straight Extreme Fear day.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/12 17:51:23

Trump's 5-hour reversal sends Iran ceasefire odds up 41pp

Trump threatened to hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and seize Kharg Island on Thursday evening, then called off all strikes five hours later and declared "a great settlement." Via Qatari mediation, the US and Iran reportedly reached an "agreement in principle" — 60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, nuclear talks framework — pending Khamenei's approval. Polymarket repriced across every tenor: ceasefire Jun 30 jumped +41pp to 77%, peace deal Jun 15 surged +10.15pp to 14.45% on $6.23M volume, Brent fell −4.22% to $86.57. IBIT broke its 15-day outflow streak (+$30.3M on Day 18), Fear & Greed hit its 11th straight Extreme Fear day (a new record), and Saylor clarified his "never sell" stance at BTC Prague. Fed June no-change held at 99.3% on $5.49M volume; Peru's Fujimori leads by 600 votes with a national Sánchez march underway; BOJ's Ueda is hospitalized with a hike to 1.0% widely expected June 15–16.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/11 17:29:50

Hormuz at 99.95%: BTC rallies into a risk-off day

Day 2 of US-Iran strikes triggered the largest single-session Polymarket move tracked this June: Project Freedom (Hormuz military escort) surged +87.45pp to 99.95% on $1.70M volume after CENTCOM's second round of strikes and Iran's denied Hormuz closure claim. The ceasefire front-end is functionally over — June 12 expires tomorrow at 4.85%. BTC's +2.73% rally into a broad risk-off session (DJIA −1.9%, gold −3.3%) contradicted re-accelerating ETF outflows of −$213.9M on Day 17, raising the question of decoupling vs. exhaustion bounce. Peru's Fujimori retook the ONPE lead by ~650 votes (97.25% on Polymarket); the Fed zero-cuts contract drifted to 79.25% ahead of Warsh's first FOMC; Russia nuclear contagion trade fully unwound to 0.85%.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/10 23:20:21

US-Iran escalation settles in — CPI hits 4.2% and the Fed stays frozen: Polymarket recap June 10, 2026

Overnight US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes (a downed Apache, ~20 US return strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian missile salvos against US Gulf bases — all intercepted) settled into consolidation by snapshot time, leaving peace deal odds near unchanged and the ceasefire front-end in freefall: Jun 12 at 6.5%, Jun 30 at 38.5%. May CPI hit 4.2% YoY on energy (+7% gasoline MoM) while core MoM softened to +0.2%, leaving the Polymarket Fed zero-cuts contract at 78.75%. BOJ Governor Ueda's hospitalization — the first BOJ meeting absence since 1998 — adds a new governance variable ahead of next week's expected 1.0% hike. Russia nuke volume hit $4.57M at just 1.45%: a contagion trade, not a signal. BTC holds $62K for a 9th straight Extreme Fear day as K33 flags the historical >50%-supply-underwater bottom pattern. Peru Fujimori 94.5% / Sánchez 5.7% frozen as the JNE count delays the official result to mid-July.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/09 22:33:26

Fujimori at 93.5% while Sánchez leads — Polymarket recap June 9, 2026

Peru's presidential count showed Sánchez leading at 95.6% tallied while Polymarket simultaneously priced Fujimori at 93.5% (+21.5pp, $12.46M 24h volume, #1 market) — the divergence explained by overseas ballots, 1,517 contested JEE sheets, and a mid-July JNE proclamation timeline. Iran's ceasefire recovered after Sunday's missile exchange, with the Jul 31 extension surging +9.5pp to 67.5% while the Jul 31 peace deal rose +4pp to 33.5% — the 34pp gap is the session's sharpest Iran signal. Bitcoin ETF Day 15 outflows narrowed to -$91.4M (from -$325.7M), with FBTC and ARKB flipping to inflows, though IBIT extended its outflow streak. BTC held at $62,071. June 11 CPI is the next macro trigger.

Polymarket Top Markets Today2026/06/08 23:26:04

Iran fires, markets surge — Polymarket recap June 8, 2026

Iran's first direct missile exchange with Israel since the April ceasefire broke Polymarket's top-50 wide open: three Iran airspace closure markets combined for $11.31M in 24h volume at 99.95% YES (UMA disputed). The session's key divergence: the ceasefire extension June 30 recovered +13.5pp to 48.5% while the peace deal June 15 fell -1pp to 4.5% — traders are pricing "hot flare-up → stopgap extension, not formal deal." Peru's runoff sits on a 0.2pp ONPE knife-edge with Polymarket at 70.5% Fujimori. Strategy's 8-K confirmed 1,550 BTC purchased at $65,332 avg, closing the 94.75% YES Polymarket contract.